Wednesday Sept. 22, 2010 | North Carolina Economic Forecast

September 21, 2010 at 11:59 am | Posted in Coming Up | 8 Comments


It’s been a long hot summer for the economy and some experts suggest that we are sliding back into what would be a double dip recession. Timed with this news is UNC Charlotte Economics Professor John Connaughton’s quarterly forecast. At the beginning of the summer Professor Connaughton forecast modest growth for the region. We’ll find out if he still feels that way or if North Carolina will join the slide back into recession. It’s time for our quarterly visit with John Connaughton to look at the region’s economic health.
Guest
John Connaughton
– Professor of Economics and Director of the Economic Forecast at UNC Charlotte

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  1. Did the nuns teach you spicket? They need a slap on the wrist. Spigot!

  2. It is well past time journalists make it crystal clear what the term “recession” means. A recession is a technical term meaning two quarters of negative growth. As long as the economy grows even a little there is no recession. The economy can stagnate for years, with high unemployment and little job growth without being in a recession. If deflation also occurs, which is a real possibility, it is very difficult to get out of this kind of stagnation. People won’t spend/invest if they expect prices to go lower, which drives demand and prices down even further.

    To your guest WE HAD BETTER ACCEPT A LOWER STANDARD OF LIVING!!! The current standard was built on massive amounts of personal debt and a return to that will make us just as vulnerable to another economic crash.

    What I wonder is if it is possible to return to a healthy state of growth without taking on this kind of personal debt. A lot of the recent growth was accompanied by (fueled by?) a stagnation or decrease in wages and benefits. At the same time the media convinced people that an ever more elaborate lifestyle was normal. The only way most people could keep up was by taking on debt. There is no reason I can see to expect a return of the well paying corporate jobs that sustained a middle class lifestyle since the fifties so how are we to keep the much grander one we have had in the recent past?

  3. Front page above the fold article in Monday’s NYT “For the Unemployed Over 50, Fears of Never Working Again”. Broadly, can the educated, experienced, unemployed, over 50 class reasonably expect to regain comparable careers.

  4. Mike, I know a couple of very wealthy people. They are investing abroad, not here. Their money goes where it will make the most. One person is investing in commercial real estate in Poland because their economy is growing.
    Also putting public money into educating people gives more bang for the bucks that spending on an expensive luxury item – which is probably foreign made anyway.

  5. Mike:

    Could your guest cooment on these two areas that can effect future economic prosperity.

    The infrastructure, energy, sanitation and transportation. Our systems are aging and seem to be piece meal, appearing to often be n the brink of major failure.

    Our education system, specifically restructuring the system in high school to funnel those who are more qualified for the academic side and re-investing in those “trade” employees. After all we always need trained folks to do work for us.

    Thanks so much.

  6. Too much paper shuffling is the problem. America needs a REAL ECONOMY again – the current paper-pushing parasite economy is in decline and cannot last.

  7. The Bob and Ray routine went on so long the prognostication (which was the object of the show) never came. I doubt Connaughton fully comprehends the implications of saying prudent household behavior amounts to a “fallacy of composition.” People’s opportunities and choices are circumscribed by their income and assets. Chickens eventually come home to roost. The same is not true of government, especially in a democracy. My uncle, a retired career diplomat in treacherous assignments, says he wonders if our fiscal future will matter if we don’t stabilize the environment. We were mending a fence hit by a car and listening on the truck radio. He said,”Put away that cell phone, Pancake. Don’t say something on the air that could embarrass us.” He was correct: That prissy John Connaughton with his unconcern for our low-waged people gets me redhot-angry. North Carolina needs more rights for workers. My uncle agrees, because he’s seen what stagnated development can do. Why dispossess the majority?

    Also- Realist needs his own show, probably on CNBC.
    Pancake

  8. Bernie:
    I know some wealthy people, and this economy and ecological breakdown frightens them too.
    PS-Want to be Realist’s cohost?
    Pancake


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