Wednesday December 10 | Economic Forecast

December 9, 2008 at 12:05 pm | Posted in Coming Up | 2 Comments

Each quarter, The North Carolina Economic Forecast predicts where our state’s economy is headed. Forecast director John Connaughton predicted last quarter that our economy would grow by 1.7%. Was he right? And is he as optimistic about our economy as he has been through 2008? We’ll find out.
Dr. John Connaughton – Director, UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast

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  1. Mike asked if the media has exasperated the notion of a bad economy. Good question. There is no doubt that the press has beat the recession drum. I recall a poll saying that over 70% of people thought we were in recession when we weren’t. Pundits used that as news. They couldn’t say that we were in recession so they touted that fact as if we were in recession because so many thought we were. Contrast that with those that don’t know that Bush inherited a recession from Clinton. People actually believe that he left Bush a strong economy. Not so. The press’ mantra of Republicans are bad and Democrats are good has shaped the lie.

  2. Economists are great at piecing together economics after the fact but tend to be horrible at forecasting. Take special note whenever you read any derivative of ‘experts surprised’ or ‘experts stunned’ in news story. I think John will be shocked later on when Obama’s Keynasian make-work projects don’t work. I can tell you why it won’t work. The upfront planning of these projects take years on its face. He’s going to force these projects faster with ‘use the budget or lose it’ ultimatums, which will incentivize wasteful government [and violate a campaign promise of his to cut back waste… of which I suspect he was never that serious on].

    The second detail is that we are not a labor-strong economy. So for those ‘shovel-ready’ projects, who will be doing them? Mexicans. Who will in turn send their earnings back to mexico. Don’t get me wrong, I love roads [and I’m sure this idea of Obama’s galls mass transit fans], but don’t expect this to jump-start the economy. It didn’t work for FDR and it won’t work now. The only power Government has is to hinder productivity and GDP growth through overbearing taxing and regulations. Government does not have power to legislate prosperity or create wealth. Government doesn’t produce one penny of economic growth.

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